Kotak Mutual Fund releases Market Outlook for 2025

Kotak Mutual Fund releases Market Outlook for 2025

 

Mumbai, December 04, 2024: Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd ("KMAMC" / "Kotak Mutual Fund"), today released its Market Outlook report for 2025. Kotak Mutual Fund, launched the report highlighting various investment themes that investors can watch out for in the upcoming year, while sharing the macro-economic perspective on the direction for the Indian economy and capital markets.

The report highlights five key themes that can aid the markets in 2025

1.    Capex Cycle Revival

India is already into a crucial multi-year capital expenditure (capex) cycle, which is expected to drive significant economic growth. The central govt. and listed corporate spending are likely to grow while state spending is likely to lag. The expansion in corporate order books across multiple sectors highlights the widespread nature of this cycle. The number of projects has reached levels last seen in 2017. Private Sector projected cost is at a decadal high at INR 55,122Bn.

 

2.    Penetrating Financial Services

Financial services is a diverse sector with varying performance across subcategories. The gap between Bank credit growth and deposit growth is narrowing which could ease pressure on margins. The Banking sector has seen healthy return ratios and improving capital adequacy levels reducing the need for fresh capital. The banking sector valuations are reasonable vs the broader market and are close to long term averages for both public and private sector banks.

 

3.    Technology – New Age Service Offerings

IT services spending is expected to improve, with increased spending in cloud services. India is expanding its offerings in new-age services such as AI, blockchain, and cybersecurity, positioning itself as a key player in the global tech landscape. One of the key drivers for the sector is the rise of generative AI. AI demand is expected to grow 15x from 2022 to 2027E.

 

4.    Consumption and Rural Revival

India's consumption sector has shown a mixed recovery post-COVID, with premium products doing well while mass consumption lagged. Urban areas have outperformed rural consumption so far, though rural spending is now showing signs of recovery. Nuclearization of families has gone up from 34% in 2008 to 50% in 2022 which would structurally drive consumption demand. The shift from unorganised retail to organised retail is another key underlying driver for the sector.

 

5.    Healthcare

Healthcare spending is set to increase with the rise in per capita GDP. As the population ages, there's a global trend of increasing medical spending. India is well-positioned to meet this growing demand, being a major producer of pharmaceuticals and vaccines. India is emerging as the best alternative outsourcing destination as companies look to de-risk supply chains away from China and in the area of Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs). The market for small molecule discovery is also large and growing, with significant increases in R&D spending.

 

Fixed income investments are increasingly captivating given the current market conditions. Allocating a portion of portfolios to fixed income may help to offer stability to the portfolio while reducing risk. With interest rates on a structural decline but expected fluctuations, focusing on longer-duration instruments—ideally with a 12 to 18-month horizon -- would allow investors to benefit from potential future rate cuts.  As per the report, RBI is likely to cut rates by 50-75 bps between now and Dec 2025. The combined Centre and State deficit for FY 26 is expected to close near 7%, could lead to an India rating upgrade in. FY 26. Favourable macroeconomic conditions, potential rating upgrades, balanced demand-supply dynamics, and rate cuts are likely to lead the 10-year G-Sec yield to trend lower, trading in the band of 6.25% to 6.50%. This makes fixed income investments a compelling opportunity for those seeking sustainable returns in the current market scenario.

Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra AMC said, "Market corrections are opportunities to invest in fundamentally strong companies at reasonable valuations. With earnings growth set to drive the market and limited room for P/E expansion, it's essential to moderate return expectations and focus on sustainable, long-term growth. Fixed income investments now offer competitive returns with lower risk, especially in longer durations. While increased government spending and strong consumption trends fuel optimism, value opportunities exist in sectors like private banks, auto, telecom, pharma, and IT. The upcoming wedding season are poised to boost consumption and economic growth, making this a suitable time for selective and disciplined investing."

 

You can read the complete report here: https://www.kotakmf.com/documents/market-outlook-2025

Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited (KMAMC) is not guaranteeing or promising any returns/ futuristic returns. The sectors mentioned do not constitute any kind of recommendation and are for information purposes only. Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund may or may not hold a position in the mentioned sector(s). This material includes statements/opinions which contain words or phrases such as "will", "believe", "expect" and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or  uncertainties associated with the statements mentioned with respect to but not limited to exposure to market risks, general and exposure to market risks,  general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which may have an impact on our services and/or investments, the monetary and  interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc.

 

Sources:

Crisil, Elara Securities, Bloomberg, RBI, NSE, Kotak Institutional Equities, Gartner, UBS Estimates, Technopak Analysis Industry Report, Livemint.com, KMAMC Internal.

 

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