Analysis of the last 𝟰𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫

Analysis of the last 𝟰𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫

🔰 There were around 𝟭𝟭,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 in the last 43 years.

🔰 Observations on positive and negative return occurrences.

𝗗𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘆 - 53% time Positive and  47% time Negative.

𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 - 56% time Positive and 44% time Negative

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗹𝘆 - 61% time Positive and 39% time Negative

 

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆- 64% time Positive and 36% time Negative

𝗬𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆  - 72% time Positive and 28% time Negative

𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 - 89% time Positive and 11% time Negative

𝟱 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 96% time Positive and 4% time Negative 

𝟭𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀- 100% time Positive and 0% time Negative 

🔰 SENSEX delivered 𝟭𝟱.𝟱% 𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥 returns over the last 43 years. 

🔰 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 dispersion (CAGR)

𝟭𝟵𝟴𝟬-𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬 -  21.6%

𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 - 14.3%

𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬 -17.8%

𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬-𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬 - 8.8%.*              

2020~ 2022 - 24.8%

🔰  BSE Sensex returns 15.5%, if we add an average dividend yield of 1.4% for the last 43 years. 

At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟴𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗹𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹.🚀

🔰 Longest 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 was from 1994 to 2003. 9 years in total.

🔰 Since 2002,  in the last 18 years 𝗡𝗢 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝟳 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀. 

This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for a minimum period of 7 years then you would have 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆.

🔰 But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:

𝗖𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗼𝗿𝘆𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟮𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 (𝗖𝗔𝗚𝗥)   

𝗛𝘆𝗯𝗿𝗶𝗱  - 15.96%

𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝗱 -16.25%

𝗘𝗟𝗦𝗦  - 18.20%

**𝗔𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 - 16.41%*

 ** excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes.

🔰 𝗦𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘𝗫 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟯𝟴𝟬𝟬 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟲 (𝟮𝟲 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸). 

In the last 26 years, average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR. 

Had Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:

At 16.4% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 1,70,000 levels

At 18% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 2,38,000 levels.

Isn't this amazing !!!

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