About 36 years, 70% of The Times Indian Share Market Has Given Positive Returns…

Out of 36 years, BSE SENSEX 

is positive on 25 times and negative on 11 times 

By Mr. B. Padmanaban, CFP^CM

Certified Financial Planner, Chennai

This is an attempt to understand how consistent our Indian capital markets are. We always look data as a mere number rather than demystifying data into some meaningful conclusion.

BSE SENSEX started way back in 1979 and we have crossed 36 financial years as on 31st March 2015.

Out of 36 years, SENSEX is positive on 25 times and negative on 11 times which is clearly indicates that 70% of the times market has given positive returns.

 

Mr. B. Padmanaban, CFP^CM

 Out of 11 times, 7 times market has corrected less than 15%. Maximum in a financial year is 47%. The below table clearly tells you more input, than what I have mentioned.

1979-1980	1980-1981	1981-1982	1982-1983
100	129	173	218
	29%	34%	26%

1983-1984	1984-1985	1985-1986	1986-1987
212	245	354	574
-3%	16%	44%	62%

1987-1988	1988-1989	1989-1990	1990-1991
510	398	714	781
-11%	-22%	79%	9%

1991-1992	1992-1993	1993-1994
1168	4285	2281
50%	267%	-47%
1994-1995	1995-1996	1996-1997
3779	3261	3367
66%	-14%	3%

1994-1995	1995-1996	1996-1997
3779	3261	3367
66%	-14%	3%

1997-1998	1998-1999	1999-2000	2000-2001
3361	3893	3740	5001
0%	16%	-4%	34%

2001-2002	2002-2003	2003-2004	2004-2005
3604	3469	3049	5591
-28%	-4%	-12%	83%

2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09
6493	11280	13072	15644
16%	74%	16%	20%

2009-10	2010-11	2011-12
9708	17527	19455
-38%	81%	11%

2013-2014 2014-2015 Apr-15 18835 22386 27957 8% 19% 25%

At the same time market has given more than 30% return in 11 times. Market has delivered more than 50% returns in 7 out of 36 years.

No of Occurrences	36
Positive	25
Negative	11
0 to -10%	3
-10% to -15%	4
-15% to -30%	2
-30% to -40%	1
-40% to -50%	1
0 to 10%	4
10 to 20%	7
20 to 30%	3
30 to 40%	2
40 to 50%	2
60 to 70%	2
70 to 80%	2
80 to 90%	2
250 to 270%	1

First of all, we do not have any other investment vehicle in India will have so much of consistent returns over such a longer period of time.

Anyone who goes through this analysis in detail will not look any other investment other than equity or equity related mutual fund investments when it comes to long term wealth creation.

Since our market is inefficient, most of the fund managers always tend to outperform the broader index, which we have witnessed for more than two decades of professional fund management.

I keep wondering why still people are not investing in an equity can be only one reason as far as I think. Most of the investor doesn't like the returns to be more or less predicted and they always look for some windfall and they don't believe in data and would like to invest with the crowd rather than really understanding what it takes them to realize all their financial dreams!

This could be the reason for people keep reading about few people who made money rather than everyone took this opportunity to make money for themselves.

Last 10 days, market has corrected nearly 5% and presenting yet another opportunity for those who expected some correction to enter again. Please do make use of it.

Hope this analysis helps you to see a very big opportunity which is currently holding by everyone.

Happy Investing!

B. Padmanaban, CFP^CM

Certified Financial Planner

www.fortuneplanners.com

9884349173

padmanaban@fortuneplanners.com

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