Share Investment Outlook for 2014

by Mr. Dipen Shah,  Kotak Securities

Kotak Securities  believe that, one should be exposed to both, the defensive and cyclical sectors. While the defensive sectors have better revenue visibility. But, have high valuations, the cyclical sectors have low visibility & are available at relatively low valuations. Within these, one should be focused on select stocks.

We believe that, one should be exposed to both, the defensive & cyclical sectors. While the defensive sectors have better revenue visibility but have high valuations, the cyclical sectors have low visibility & are available at relatively low valuations. Within these, one should be focused on select stocks.

Within the defensives, we like select stocks in the IT, FMCG, Media and Private Sector banks. We are positive on the IT sector as it is expected to see improved demand as developed economies like US and Europe   recover and stabilise. For consumer goods, consumption demand is still growing, though at a slower pace. Media  sector is expected to benefit because of the digitization as well as higher political spending, ahead of the elections.

We like private sector banks as these have relatively better asset quality as well as relatively higher margins. While we note that, valuations are generally on the higher for these sectors, we also believe that, one can find good quality stocks (including mid-caps) in these sectors, which are available at reasonable valuations.

On the other hand, we have a cautious view on the cyclical and investment-oriented sectors. The Government has announced some reform initiatives in the past few months. However, our interactions with managements indicate that, companies have not seen any major change in the ground realities. We believe that, effective implementation of the initiatives will result in better prospects for these sectors.

Mr. Dipen Shah, 
Kotak Securities

Also, more initiatives need to be taken to revive investment interest. In these sectors, one should look at companies having credible managements and strong balance sheets. Companies having net cash in the balance sheets would be preferred as they will not be impacted further even if the economy recovers at a slower pace than expected. Moreover, they will benefit in case interest rates continue to rise.

The concerns over the next few months will be on the pace of the Fed tapering and on the outcome of the general elections in April – May 2014. While an accelerated taper will impact liquidity flows into India, the absence of a clear mandate for any particular political party will be negative from the reforms perspective. This can have a bearing on the growth rates for the next fiscal.”

About the author..

Mr. Dipen Shah is Head (Private Client Group Research) at Kotak Securities

For Media Contact:

Vinisha Khatwani

 Mumbai – 400 013

t +91 22 4417 4510 Email: vinisha.khatwani@bm.com

Share: