by Mr.
Dipen Shah, Kotak Securities
“Calendar 2013
yielded marginal gains for the benchmark indices though there was significant
volatility during the period. The major factors which influenced markets were
the Fed taper concerns, Indian rupee weakness (it has recovered from the
lows, though) inflation / interest rate
concerns and finally, expectations on the political front. Slowing growth also
kept market sentiment subdued.
Within this,
defensive sectors did well. However, the cyclical and investment-oriented
sectors suffered due to lower growth and rising interest rates.
The above-mentioned
concerns restricted gains to just nearly 7% for the benchmark indices as
compared to about 25 % gains for markets such US. Developing markets, as a set,
under-performed the developed markets by a wide margin.
 |
| Dipen Shah, Kotak Securities |
Going ahead, there is
some data about the initial phase of the Fed tapering. However, India has built
a war-chest of about $ 3,500 recently, which has reduced rupee’s vulnerability
to the same.
THE CAD has also
reduced dramatically due to measures taken on gold imports & due to rising
exports. On the other hand, growth & inflation remain concerning. There is
uncertainty on the outcome of general elections.
In such a scenario,
which is fraught with concerns & uncertainty, one needs to look at the
longer term rather than the immediate future. Also, a balanced portfolio
approach is advisable as compared to a concentrated one.
Kotak
Securities
believe that, one should be exposed to both, the defensive & cyclical
sectors. While the defensive sectors have better revenue visibility but have
high valuations, the cyclical sectors have low visibility & are available
at relatively low valuations. Within these, one should be focused on select
stocks.
About the author..
Mr. Dipen
Shah is Head (Private Client Group Research) at Kotak Securities
For Media Contact:
Vinisha Khatwani
t +91 22 4417 4510
Email: vinisha.khatwani@bm.com
No comments:
Post a Comment