IATA’s freight forecast from 2013- 2017
The International Air Transport
Association (IATA) Airline Industry Forecast 2013 - 2017 shows that
international freight volumes are expected to grow 17 % over the next 5
years.This consensus outlook incorporates a conservative estimate of the
recovery in global economic activity and world trade volumes over the coming
years.
“Air cargo is a key enabler for the movement of high value products and
perishable goods around the globe. More than $ 6 trillion worth of goods is air
freighted annually, accounting for around 35 % of total world trade. But more recently,the relationship between international
trade and GDP has broken down owing to rising trade barriers and ‘on-shoring’
of production. The successful conclusion of the World Trade Organization talks
in Bali potentially could be very important in kick-starting trade growth. To
be ready to take best advantage of possible opportunities, air cargo needs to
work together as an industry to improve its competitiveness and enhancethe
quality of its service to customers,” said Mr. Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director
General and CEO.
Forecast Highlights:
· International freight volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%
· The largest (US) and the third largest (China) air freight markets in
2012 are likely to add more than one million additional tonnes each over the
forecast period. As a result, China will supplant Germany as the second largest
air freight market in 2017
· Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates will both contribute above
7 lakh tonnes each to the additional freight volume during the five year period
until 2017
· The estimated imbalance in annual freight traffic
flows from Asia to North America is expected to reach 1.1 million tonnes in
2017
International Freight Developments:
· Africa is forecast to be the fastest growing region over
the forecast period with a growth rate of 4 % CAGR. The fastest growing freight
route for Africa is the inter-Africa market (5.3 %)
· Not far behind Africa are the Middle East and Latin
America, both with a CAGR of 3.8 %, and the Asia - Pacific at 3.5 % per annum,
followed by Europe & North America at 2.4 % CAGR &2.7 % CAGR,
respectively
· By 2017, the five largest
international freight markets will be the United States, China Germany, Hong
Kong, & the UAE
· Vietnam is expected to be the
fastest growing country for air freight volumes over the forecasting horizon
with a CAGR of 6.6 % per annum, followed by Bangladesh (5.7 % CAGR), Brazil
(5.5 % CAGR), Ethiopia (5.3 % CAGR) & Peru (5.2 % CAGR)
· Freight carriage within the Asia-Pacific region will account for around 31
% of the expected total increase in freight tonnage over the period
Freight Traffic Shares by Route Area:
· The largest freight traffic
sharesin
2012 were within Asia Pacific (25.3 %), Europe-Asia Pacific (12.1 %), North and
Mid-Pacific (10.5 %) and North Atlantic (10.1 %)
· Looking ahead to 2017, within Asia Pacific is
expected to increase its share by about 1% to 26.2 %, with smaller gains (of
about 0.3%) in both North America-Latin America (to 6.6 %) and Middle East-Asia
Pacific (to 6.5 %)
· Traffic shares Within
Europe and in the North Atlantic are both expected to decrease by around 0.6
percentage points, to 8.3% and 9.5% respectively
· Europe-Asia Pacificand
North and Mid-Pacificare both expected to be down by around 0.3 percentage points in 2017
compared with 2012.
Notes
:
· IATA (International Air Transport Association)
represents some 240 airlines comprising 84% of global air traffic.
For
more information, please contact:
Corporate Communications
Corporate Communications
S Krishna Moorthy, Sr. Account Manager,
Avian Media D: + 044-4260 4361
M: + 91 9442191717
E: krishna@avian-media.com
W: www.avian-media.com
No comments:
Post a Comment