Indian Stock Markert: Are We Out Of The Woods Yet..? - A. K. Prabhakar

Are We Out Of The Woods Yet..??

by Mr. A. K. Prabhakar 

Sensex

■ SENSEX - (17618) has formed Dead Cross as per Dow Theory which is oldest theory of technical analysis which acts with lag impact.

Dead Cross is 50 DMA 16681 cutting 200 DMA 16823 from above, as specified in previous report. Till Sensex does not cross 17800 it is expected to be in range bound ahead of result season as well. SENSEX from 1990 has corrected every 2 years 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 and now we are in 2012 ?

Mr. A. K. Prabhakar 

Nifty

■ NIFTY - (5345), till 5426 is not crossed on higher side which is a 76.4% retracement from 5629 to 4770, Nifty may face selling pressure till 5000 or 4850 levels as rising Wedge is formed.

Nifty has held 200 WMA 4849 multiple times and crossed 200 DMA 5084 plays very important role.

Market would maintain 4850-5400 as range as mentioned in previous few monthly report.

Result season – The next trigger

Sectors	Comments	View
Auto	Muted growth on dull volumes and lower demand on higher petrol prices	s-
Banking	No positive surprises expected, mixed bag but select PSU's may see stressed assets	s+/-
Cement	Price realizations will help the top line though cost pressures will impact the margins	s+/-
Infra	Execution of projects will be tracked as slowly the investment cycle picks up	s+/-
FMCG	Volume and price led growth, input cost on stablising front	s+
Capital Goods	Order intake will be watched	s+/-
IT	Rupee depreciation may show a better bottom line, though top line may be compensated on weak demand from Europe and US	s+/-
Metals & Mining	Lackluster quarter on lower volumes & weaker demand, though lower material cost but negatively impacted on rupee depreciation	s-
Oil & Gas	Under recoveries increased marginally , margin pressure to continue in refining and petchem	s-
Pharma	The sector will be positively impacted on rupee depreciation and good domestic demand	s+
Power	Tariff hikes may help to show a positive top line but the growth for the sector will be through capacity additions	s+/-
Real Estate	Mix set of results, being stock specific on parameters like strong bookings, lower debt etc	s+/-
Telecom	Tariff cuts may impact the value growth though volume growth was seen, the competition intensifies	s-

We like - BF UTILITIES, NBCC, CUMMINS, CASTROL INDIA, ZYDUSWELLNESS, DISHTV, RALLISINDIA, EMAMI, CADILA, IPCA, GLENMARK, TAJGVK, MAHINDRA HOLIDAYS & RESORTS , INDIAN HOTELS &  SKF INDIA.

A. K. Prabhakar,
Senior Vice President - Equity Research Anand Rathi , 4th Floor, Silver Metropolis, Jai Coach Compound, Opposite Bimbisar Nagar, Goregaon(East), Mumbai - 400 063. India,  

Email:  akprabhakar@rathi.com
Tel No: + 4001 3700,  Direct: + 4001 3999, Fax No: + 4001 3770, Website: www.rathi.com

A K Prabhakar <akprabhakar@rathi.com>

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